Monterrey vs CF Pachuca

Monterrey host CF Pachuca in the Liga MX, kicking off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at Estadio BBVA. Monterrey sit 10th in the table and CF Pachuca are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Monterrey have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (W L L D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games CF Pachuca have taken 2 wins and 3 draws (D D W W D). CF Pachuca are averaging 1.7 scored and 1.1 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Monterrey, 6 for CF Pachuca and 0 draws, averaging 3.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.61 to 1.66.

Monterrey struggle at home with only 0.38 away xG average despite playing at BBVA. Pachuca's 1.66 away xG and unbeaten recent record (DDWWD) make them strong away favorites. Draw or Away at 88% is the market consensus.