Championship12:30Vicarage Road

Watford vs Charlton

Watfordvs

Charlton

Our pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Under 3.5

77%

Odds 1.3

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

Watford

3.03

33%

Draw

3.23

31%

Charlton

2.78

36%

Why this pick

Match analysis

Watford host Charlton in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Vicarage Road. Watford sit 22nd in the table and Charlton are 13th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Watford have taken 1 win and 4 defeats (L L W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Charlton have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D L D D L). Charlton are averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 77% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.18 to 1.25.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Watford vs Charlton) at 77% based on expected goals of 1.18-1.25.

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.577%
Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.572%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away69%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away67%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)67%
Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw64%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.556%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)53%
Both Teams to Score · Yes51%
Both Teams to Score - No · No49%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)47%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.544%
Away Win · Away36%
Home Win · Home33%
Draw · Draw31%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.528%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.523%
Correct Score · 1-115%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

Watford · last 6

L@Cardiff5-1
L@Bristol City1-0
LvStoke City1-2
WvPreston2-1
L@West Brom1-0
L@Swansea2-0

Charlton · last 6

D@Burnley2-2
L@Cardiff3-1
DvPortsmouth0-0
DvQPR0-0
L@Stoke City4-0
D@West Brom1-1

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
Watford	0.88	1.25	22
Charlton	0.88	1.25	13

Standings

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	5	2	1	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	1	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	4	3	1	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	2	5	1	+6	17
5	QPR	10	3	4	1	+6	17
6	West Brom	10	4	2	2	+2	17
7	Southampton	10	4	2	2	+11	16
8	Stoke City	10	4	1	3	+1	16
9	Blackburn	10	2	3	3	+2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	1	+2	14
11	Millwall	10	3	2	3	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	1	3	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	3	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	3	1	4	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	2	3	3	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	2	2	3	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	4	2	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	3	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	1	4	3	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	5	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	0	4	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	4	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	2	5	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	6	-12	4