Everton vs Chelsea

Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton sit 5th in the table and Chelsea are 6th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Everton have taken 2 wins and 3 draws (W D D D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Chelsea have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (W W L D L). Chelsea are averaging 2.0 scored and 2.4 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.36 to 0.95.

Everton's defensive solidity at home (0.6 GA average) combined with Chelsea's attacking vulnerability on the road make draw or home win highly probable. Model's 88% confidence well-grounded in form and possession data.