Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
Espanyolvs
Atletico MadridHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Espanyol host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at RCDE Stadium. Espanyol sit 12th in the table and Atletico Madrid are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 5 league games Espanyol have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L D W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Atletico Madrid have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W L W W W). Atletico Madrid are averaging 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.95 to 1.62.
Atletico Madrid's superior form, xG advantage, and top-2 league position give them strong underlying metrics despite playing away. Espanyol's poor home record (0.86 goals for) and recent losses make this a clear away-favoured fixture.
Market probabilities
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away79%
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.574%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.574%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away72%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)71%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)68%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.553%
- Away Win · Away52%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes51%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No49%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw48%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.547%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)29%
- Draw · Draw28%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.526%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.526%
- Home Win · Home21%
- Correct Score · 1-113%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- LvElche1-3
- L@Rayo Vallecano2-1
- W@Osasuna0-2
- DvSevilla1-1
- L@Real Sociedad2-1
- WvManchester United2-0
- WvReal Madrid2-1
- WvOsasuna4-0
- W@Real Sociedad0-3
- L@Liverpool2-1
- L@Athletic Club3-0
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 1.43 | 1.43 | 12 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.29 | 1 | 2 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Other matches to check
Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.