Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Santos Laguna host U.N.A.M. - Pumas in the Liga MX, kicking off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Estadio TSM Corona. Santos Laguna sit 9th in the table and U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Santos Laguna have taken 5 wins (W W W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games U.N.A.M. - Pumas have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D L D W). U.N.A.M. - Pumas are averaging 1.6 scored and 1.7 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for Santos Laguna, 3 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1 draw, averaging 3.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 89% at odds of 1.12. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.67 to 0.56.

Santos Laguna are clear favourites with strong recent form and a significant xG advantage. UNAM-Pumas have been inconsistent and vulnerable away from home. The 89% probability for Home or Draw reflects Santos' clear superiority and the low likelihood of an upset.