Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Heerenveen host Excelsior in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Heerenveen sit 10th in the table and Excelsior are 9th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Heerenveen have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D L D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Excelsior have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (W D L D L). Excelsior are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 77% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.52 to 1.00.

Heerenveen's home advantage and xG edge (1.52–1.0) support the 77% probability of a home win or draw. Excelsior have conceded heavily in recent form and lack attacking threat. The extensive injury lists affect both sides but do not alter the fundamental asymmetry.