Avai vs Athletic Club

Avai host Athletic Club in the Serie B, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Estádio da Ressacada. Avai sit 17th in the table and Athletic Club are 13th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Avai have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L L L D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 7 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Athletic Club have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W L W D). Athletic Club are averaging 1.2 scored and 1.1 conceded per game, keeping 8 clean sheets so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 1 win for Avai, 2 for Athletic Club and 0 draws, averaging 2.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 77% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.30 to 1.16.

This is a tight, competitive second-tier match with both teams averaging around 1.1-1.2 goals per game. The model correctly identifies that while goals are likely, a high-scoring game is less probable. Under 3.5 reflects the typical output levels.