Gremio vs Cruzeiro

Gremio host Cruzeiro in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Arena do Grêmio. Gremio sit 18th in the table and Cruzeiro are 6th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Gremio have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (W L L L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 6 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Cruzeiro have taken 3 wins and 2 defeats (W L W L W). Cruzeiro are averaging 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 5 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for Gremio, 5 for Cruzeiro and 2 draws, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 78% at odds of 1.28. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.65 to 1.12.

Gremio average 1.07 goals for at home while Cruzeiro average 1.5 goals for overall. Both teams show capability to score; BTTS probability at 0.56 and xG profile both support over 1.5 as the clearest edge in this match.