Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix host Melbourne Victory in the A-League, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Sky Stadium. Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in the table and Melbourne Victory are 9th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Wellington Phoenix arrive without a tracked recent run to lean on. At home and away combined they are averaging 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Melbourne Victory arrive without a tracked recent run to lean on. Melbourne Victory are averaging 0.0 scored and 0.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 91% at odds of 1.1. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.25 to 2.63.

Melbourne Victory has significantly higher xG (2.63 vs 1.25) and historically scores freely against Wellington. Over 1.5 at 91% probability is well-grounded in expected goals and head-to-head data.