Le Havre vs Auxerre

Le Havre host Auxerre in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Stade Océane. Le Havre sit 18th in the table and Auxerre are 16th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Le Havre have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (L D L D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Auxerre have taken 2 wins and 3 defeats (L L L W W). Auxerre are averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 74% at odds of 1.35. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.20 to 1.37.

Le Havre (18th) struggle at home while Auxerre (16th) concede heavily, creating a low-quality match but one likely to produce at least 2 goals. Over 1.5 at 74% is more prudent than Over 2.5 (48%), given Le Havre's offensive limitations despite their recent away win at Toulouse.