AS Roma vs Genoa

AS Roma host Genoa in the Serie A, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico. AS Roma sit 3rd in the table and Genoa are 17th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games AS Roma have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (W W W W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Genoa have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L L L D L). Genoa are averaging 0.6 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 89% at odds of 1.12. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.48 to 0.50.

Roma are third-place, averaging 2.8 goals and conceding only 0.6. Genoa rank 17th, have scored just 0.2 xG away, and offer minimal threat. Home or Draw is highly favoured.