Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastlevs
Aston VillaHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at St. James' Park. Newcastle sit 11th in the table and Aston Villa are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.
Over their last 5 league games Newcastle have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D W D L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Aston Villa have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L D L W). Aston Villa are averaging 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 91% at odds of 1.1. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.12 to 1.74.
Newcastle and Aston Villa both average 1.7+ goals; recent results include 4-1 and 6-0 wins. High-scoring Premier League fixture with excellent goal expectancy.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.591%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)82%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away77%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.574%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes74%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw69%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)60%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away54%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.554%
- Home Win · Home46%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.546%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)40%
- Away Win · Away31%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.526%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No26%
- Draw · Draw23%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.59%
- Correct Score · 1-19%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- L@Coventry4-1
- WvHull City2-1
- L@Leeds4-1
- DvBournemouth2-2
- W@Tottenham0-2
- WvFenerbahçe6-0
- W@Tottenham2-3
- LvNottingham Forest1-2
- W@Club Brugge KV2-3
- D@Hull City0-0
- LvArsenal0-1
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.8 | 1.8 | 11 |
| Aston Villa | 0.8 | 1.8 | 16 |
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 |  Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Crystal Palace | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 |  Coventry | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 |  Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.