Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Kilmarnockvs
MotherwellHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Kilmarnock host Motherwell in the Premiership, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Rugby Park. Kilmarnock sit 12th in the table and Motherwell are 9th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 5 league games Kilmarnock have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L L D W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.9 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Motherwell have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (D W L L L). Motherwell are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 91% at odds of 1.1. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.47 to 1.45.
Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Kilmarnock vs Motherwell) at 91% based on expected goals of 2.47-1.45.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.591%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)83%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw79%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away79%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.575%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)74%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes71%
- Home Win · Home59%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.555%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.545%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away41%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No29%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)26%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.525%
- Away Win · Away21%
- Draw · Draw21%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.59%
- Correct Score · 2-19%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- DvHeart Of Midlothian1-1
- W@Hibernian0-1
- D@Aberdeen0-0
- LvST Mirren0-1
- LvDundee Utd0-4
- LvCeltic0-2
- L@Dundee2-1
- LvAberdeen0-4
- L@Rangers1-0
- WvDundee Utd3-0
- D@ST Mirren3-3
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 0.86 | 2.14 | 12 |
| Motherwell | 1.29 | 1.57 | 9 |
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 |  Dundee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 |  ST Johnstone | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 |  Dundee Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 |  ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 5 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.