Swansea vs West Ham
Swanseavs
West HamHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Swansea host West Ham in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium. Swansea sit 1st in the table and West Ham are 3rd, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.
Over their last 5 league games Swansea have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W D L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games West Ham have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (W W W W D). West Ham are averaging 2.8 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.18 to 2.29.
Swansea at home is dominant defensively and West Ham in form defensively with strong attacking profile. The combination supports Over 1.5 even though West Ham's away xG of 2.29 suggests higher scoring.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.587%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away83%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away79%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)79%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)78%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.567%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes63%
- Away Win · Away61%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.554%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.546%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw39%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No37%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.533%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)22%
- Draw · Draw21%
- Home Win · Home17%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.513%
- Correct Score · 1-210%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- W@Millwall0-1
- W@Lincoln1-2
- WvBurnley3-1
- L@Southampton3-1
- DvWrexham0-0
- WvWatford2-0
- W@Lincoln0-6
- D@Millwall2-2
- WvWrexham6-0
- W@Bolton2-3
- WvDerby3-0
- WvWolves4-2
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.63 | 0.75 | 1 |
| West Ham | 2.75 | 1.38 | 3 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  QPR | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Stoke City | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Blackburn | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Charlton | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 |  Bolton | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 |  Portsmouth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 |  Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.