Championship20:00Turf Moor

Burnley vs Wolves

Burnleyvs

Wolves

Our pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Odds 1.16

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

Burnley

3.57

28%

Draw

4.00

25%

Wolves

2.13

47%

Why this pick

Match analysis

Burnley host Wolves in the Championship, kicking off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Turf Moor. Burnley sit 21st in the table and Wolves are 10th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Burnley have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D L D L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Wolves have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W L D W W). Wolves are averaging 2.1 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.44 to 1.90.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Burnley vs Wolves) at 86% based on expected goals of 1.44-1.90.

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.586%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)78%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away75%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away72%
Both Teams to Score · Yes66%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.565%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)63%
Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.557%
Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw53%
Away Win · Away47%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.543%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)37%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.535%
Both Teams to Score - No · No34%
Home Win · Home28%
Draw · Draw25%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.514%
Correct Score · 1-111%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

Burnley · last 6

DvCharlton2-2
DvDerby1-1
L@Swansea3-1
D@Wrexham1-1
LvBristol City1-2
DvMiddlesbrough1-1

Wolves · last 6

LvBolton1-3
WvWest Brom1-0
W@Sheffield Utd0-1
D@Birmingham2-2
L@West Ham4-2
WvStoke City4-1

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
Burnley	1.13	2.13	21
Wolves	2.14	1.43	10

Standings

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	5	2	1	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	1	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	4	3	1	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	2	5	1	+6	17
5	QPR	10	3	4	1	+6	17
6	West Brom	10	4	2	2	+2	17
7	Southampton	10	4	2	2	+11	16
8	Stoke City	10	4	1	3	+1	16
9	Blackburn	10	2	3	3	+2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	1	+2	14
11	Millwall	10	3	2	3	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	1	3	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	3	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	3	1	4	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	2	3	3	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	2	2	3	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	4	2	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	3	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	1	4	3	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	5	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	0	4	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	4	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	2	5	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	6	-12	4