Derby vs Stoke City

Derby host Stoke City in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Pride Park Stadium. Derby sit 23rd in the table and Stoke City are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Derby have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (W L L L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Stoke City have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (W W D W W). Stoke City are averaging 1.6 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.12 to 0.76.

Derby's weak home attack (0.38 goals per game) and overall defensive struggles (1.75 conceded/game) combine poorly with Stoke's modest away xG of 0.76. Low-scoring outcome is likely.