Championship15:00St. Andrew's Stadium

Birmingham vs QPR

Birminghamvs

QPR

Our pick

Double Chance 1X

Home or Draw

85%

Odds 1.18

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

Birmingham

1.79

56%

Draw

3.45

29%

QPR

6.67

15%

Why this pick

Match analysis

Birmingham host QPR in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at St. Andrew's Stadium. Birmingham sit 4th in the table and QPR are 5th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Birmingham have taken 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat (D D L W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games QPR have taken 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat (W L D D D). QPR are averaging 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.51 to 0.68.

Birmingham's massive injury list is significant, but their recent 4-0 demolition of Preston and league position (4th) show resilience. Only 4 days rest before QPR arrives creates fatigue risk, but Double Chance protects against an upset.

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw85%
Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.582%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)79%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away71%
Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.566%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)63%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.562%
Both Teams to Score - No · No60%
Home Win · Home56%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away44%
Both Teams to Score · Yes40%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.538%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.534%
Draw · Draw29%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)21%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.518%
Away Win · Away15%
Correct Score · 1-015%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

Birmingham · last 6

WvPreston4-0
DvMiddlesbrough2-2
W@Derby1-2
L@Norwich2-1
DvWolves2-2
DvSouthampton1-1

QPR · last 6

WvDerby4-1
DvPreston2-2
D@West Brom1-1
D@Charlton0-0
LvMiddlesbrough0-1
WvCardiff2-1

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
Birmingham	1.5	1.38	4
QPR	1.25	0.88	5

Standings

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	5	2	1	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	1	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	4	3	1	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	2	5	1	+6	17
5	QPR	10	3	4	1	+6	17
6	West Brom	10	4	2	2	+2	17
7	Southampton	10	4	2	2	+11	16
8	Stoke City	10	4	1	3	+1	16
9	Blackburn	10	2	3	3	+2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	1	+2	14
11	Millwall	10	3	2	3	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	1	3	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	3	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	3	1	4	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	2	3	3	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	2	2	3	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	4	2	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	3	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	1	4	3	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	5	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	0	4	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	4	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	2	5	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	6	-12	4