Major League Soccer00:30Boston Stadium

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire

New England Revolutionvs

Chicago Fire

Our pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5

84%

Odds 1.19

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

New England Revolution

3.23

31%

Draw

5.00

20%

Chicago Fire

2.04

49%

Why this pick

Match analysis

New England Revolution host Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Boston Stadium. New England Revolution sit 3rd in the table and Chicago Fire are 4th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games New England Revolution have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W L W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Chicago Fire have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D D D L L). Chicago Fire are averaging 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 6 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 2.5 Goals (Over 2.5) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.07 to 2.57.

Statistical model favors Over 2.5 (New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire) at 84% based on expected goals of 2.07-2.57.

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.595%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)88%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.584%
Both Teams to Score · Yes81%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away80%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away69%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.568%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)61%
Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw51%
Away Win · Away49%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)39%
Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.532%
Home Win · Home31%
Draw · Draw20%
Both Teams to Score - No · No19%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.516%
Correct Score · 2-27%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.55%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

New England Revolution · last 6

W@FC Cincinnati2-3
LvSeattle Sounders0-3
WvOrlando City SC4-2
W@Chicago Fire1-2
W@New York City FC1-2
L@Los Angeles Galaxy2-1

Chicago Fire · last 6

LvPhiladelphia Union1-3
WvNew York City FC2-1
L@Nashville SC3-0
LvNew England Revolution1-2
DvInter Miami1-1
D@Toronto FC4-4

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
New England Revolution	1.73	1.27	3
Chicago Fire	1.8	1.52	4

Standings

Major League Soccer table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	29	17	6	3	+41	66
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	4	6	+31	52
2	Inter Miami	29	12	10	4	+20	52
2	St. Louis City	29	12	8	6	+16	51
3	FC Dallas	29	12	8	6	+8	50
3	New England Revolution	29	14	4	8	+7	49
4	San Jose Earthquakes	29	12	6	8	+10	47
4	Chicago Fire	29	11	6	8	+9	48
5	Houston Dynamo	29	13	5	8	+2	46
5	Charlotte	29	12	7	7	+8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	10	6	10	+13	45
6	Los Angeles FC	30	11	8	8	+15	45
7	Seattle Sounders	29	8	8	9	+2	41
7	Orlando City SC	29	10	4	12	-15	38
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	8	9	10	-9	39
8	New York Red Bulls	29	9	6	11	-15	36
9	Colorado Rapids	29	11	3	12	0	38
9	FC Cincinnati	28	8	9	8	-8	36
10	New York City FC	29	8	8	10	+2	33
10	Portland Timbers	29	9	5	12	-5	33
11	Real Salt Lake	29	8	5	13	-5	33
11	Toronto FC	29	6	11	9	-11	33
12	DC United	28	6	11	8	-11	33
12	San Diego	29	8	7	11	-3	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	7	5	14	-3	32
13	Minnesota United FC	29	7	8	11	-9	31
14	Austin	29	7	9	10	-17	31
14	Atlanta United FC	29	7	5	14	-12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	5	6	15	-24	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	5	3	17	-37	22