New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Sports Illustrated Stadium. New York Red Bulls sit 8th in the table and Toronto FC are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games New York Red Bulls have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L D L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Toronto FC have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D D W L L). Toronto FC are averaging 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.89 to 0.76.

Red Bulls dominate in expected goals and Toronto has been inconsistent and poor on the road. NYRB's recent wins at home (2-1, 4-1) show attacking intent. Home or Draw offers strong protection.