Lille vs Stade Brestois 29

Lille host Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Lille sit 2nd in the table and Stade Brestois 29 are 7th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Lille have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W D W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D D W L L). Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.41 to 0.75.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Lille vs Stade Brestois 29) at 83% based on expected goals of 1.41-0.75.