Sport Recife vs Criciuma

Sport Recife host Criciuma in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at Ilha do Retiro. Sport Recife sit 8th in the table and Criciuma are 5th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Sport Recife have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W W D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 10 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Criciuma have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W W L W W). Criciuma are averaging 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 16 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.02 to 0.73.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Sport Recife vs Criciuma) at 90% based on expected goals of 1.02-0.73.