Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor

Kocaelispor host Samsunspor in the Süper Lig, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu. Kocaelispor sit 6th in the table and Samsunspor are 10th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Kocaelispor have taken 2 wins and 1 defeat (L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Samsunspor have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat (D W L). Samsunspor are averaging 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 4 meetings have produced 1 win for Kocaelispor, 2 for Samsunspor and 1 draw, averaging 1.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.92 to 1.04.

Expected goals are tightly balanced and modest (under 2.0 combined). Both sides carry injury burdens but these appear reflected in the model's low-scoring projection. Under 3.5 at 86% is sound.