Farense vs Chaves

Farense host Chaves in the Segunda Liga, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026. Farense sit 6th in the table and Chaves are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Farense have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W W D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Chaves have taken 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L D L). Chaves are averaging 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 8 meetings have produced 3 wins for Farense, 4 for Chaves and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 81% at odds of 1.23. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.40 to 0.86.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Farense vs Chaves) at 81% based on expected goals of 1.40-0.86.