Almeria vs Cadiz
Almeriavs
CadizHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Almeria host Cadiz in the Segunda División, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026. Almeria sit 16th in the table and Cadiz are 17th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.
Over their last 3 league games Almeria have taken 1 win and 2 defeats (W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.
Over their last 3 league games Cadiz have taken 3 draws (D D D). Cadiz are averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.
Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Almeria, 2 for Cadiz and 4 draws, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Home Win (Home) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 3.62 to 1.32.
Statistical model favors Home (Almeria vs Cadiz) at 79% based on expected goals of 3.62-1.32.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.596%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw91%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)90%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)89%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away88%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.587%
- Home Win · Home79%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.572%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes72%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.528%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No28%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away21%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.513%
- Draw · Draw12%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)10%
- Away Win · Away9%
- Correct Score · 3-18%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.54%
Last 10 meetings
- LCadiz1 - 208/02/2026AlmeriaW
- WAlmeria3 - 016/11/2025CadizL
- WCadiz2 - 109/05/2025AlmeriaL
- DAlmeria1 - 122/12/2024CadizD
- WAlmeria6 - 125/05/2024CadizL
- DCadiz1 - 126/08/2023AlmeriaD
- DAlmeria1 - 118/03/2023CadizD
- DCadiz1 - 130/12/2022AlmeriaD
- LCadiz1 - 201/08/2021AlmeriaW
- WCadiz2 - 129/02/2020AlmeriaL
Recent form
- L@
Sabadell0 - 1 - L@
Tenerife0 - 1 - Wv
Eldense3 - 0 - W@
Cordoba4 - 0 - W@
Al-Nassr2 - 0 - L@
Real Betis0 - 1 - L@
Granada CF0 - 2 - W@
Águilas1 - 0 - Lv
Malaga1 - 2 - D@Malaga0 - 0
- Dv
Valladolid1 - 1 - D@Eldense2 - 2
- Dv
Celta de Vigo II0 - 0 - Lv
Las Palmas1 - 3 - WvGranada CF2 - 0
- Lv
AD Ceuta FC1 - 3 - LvCordoba0 - 1
- Lv
Leicester0 - 1 - Lv
Orlando Pirates1 - 2
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 1 | 0.67 | 16 |
| Cadiz | 1 | 1 | 17 |
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leganes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | Granada CF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Castellón | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Sporting Gijon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Las Palmas | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 7 | Tenerife | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 |  Eibar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Sabadell | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 |  Girona | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 11 | Celta de Vigo II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 |  Burgos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 |  Real Sociedad II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 |  Oviedo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 |  FC Andorra | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Almeria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 |  Cadiz | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | Valladolid | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Eldense | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.