Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026 at Volksparkstadion. Hamburger SV sit 15th in the table and FSV Mainz 05 are 11th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 1 league game Hamburger SV have taken 1 defeat (L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 1 league game FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1 draw (D). FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 0.0 scored and 0.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for Hamburger SV, 3 for FSV Mainz 05 and 4 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.79 to 1.77.

Mainz's attacking threat (1.77 xG) significantly outweighs Hamburg's defensive output (0.79 xG). Hamburg's league position (14th) and recent 2-0 loss support the away bias. The model's 85% probability for Draw or Away is well-calibrated.