Everton vs Manchester United

Everton host Manchester United in the Premier League, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton sit 8th in the table and Manchester United are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Everton have taken 1 win and 1 draw (W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Manchester United have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (L W). Manchester United are averaging 2.5 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Everton, 7 for Manchester United and 2 draws, averaging 2.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 81% at odds of 1.23. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.63 to 2.04.

While Manchester United's superior expected goals supports the away win probability, the extensive injury list—particularly missing defensive cover and midfield control—reduces their capacity to dominate. Everton's own injuries limit their ability to exploit the gap, making a closer contest and draw probability more likely than the raw xG differential suggests.