Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes

Austin host San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026 at Q2 Stadium. Austin sit 14th in the table and San Jose Earthquakes are 4th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Austin have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L L W D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games San Jose Earthquakes have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L L L L D). San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 6 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 2 wins for Austin, 2 for San Jose Earthquakes and 5 draws, averaging 4.2 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.64 to 1.41.

Austin and San Jose have comparable attacking output (1.64 vs 1.41 xG) and h2h history shows high-scoring affairs (5-1, 4-3, 3-3). Model's 82% reflects a balanced, open game likely to exceed 1.5 goals.