Puebla vs Toluca

Puebla host Toluca in the Liga MX, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026. Puebla sit 8th in the table and Toluca are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Puebla have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L D W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Toluca have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L W D W W). Toluca are averaging 2.0 scored and 0.7 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Puebla, 5 for Toluca and 4 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.96 to 1.64.

Toluca, in second place with just 0.67 goals conceded away, faces a struggling Puebla side at home with only 0.67 goals scored at home. The away side's defensive solidity and league position strongly favour a draw or away win.