Novorizontino vs Avai

Novorizontino host Avai in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase. Novorizontino sit 4th in the table and Avai are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Novorizontino have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L D W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 9 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Avai have taken 3 wins and 2 defeats (L W W W L). Avai are averaging 1.1 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, keeping 7 clean sheets so far.

Their last 8 meetings have produced 3 wins for Novorizontino, 2 for Avai and 3 draws, averaging 2.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.41 to 0.64.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Novorizontino vs Avai) at 85% based on expected goals of 1.41-0.64.