QPR vs Middlesbrough

QPR host Middlesbrough in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Loftus Road. QPR sit 2nd in the table and Middlesbrough are 5th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games QPR have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W D W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Middlesbrough have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W L W D). Middlesbrough are averaging 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for QPR, 6 for Middlesbrough and 1 draw, averaging 3.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.21 to 1.89.

Over 1.5 goals at 83% confidence reflects strong attacking threat from both sides. Middlesbrough (2.0 xG) and QPR (1.21 xG) combined suggest at least 2 goals likely. Recent results show both teams scoring in patches.