New York City FC vs Nashville SC

New York City FC host Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Yankee Stadium. New York City FC sit 7th in the table and Nashville SC are 1st, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games New York City FC have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D L L D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Nashville SC have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (D W W W W). Nashville SC are averaging 2.1 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 10 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 3 wins for New York City FC, 4 for Nashville SC and 2 draws, averaging 2.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 76% at odds of 1.32. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.18 to 1.19.

NYCFC generates 2.18 xG at home, but the injury list is severe and repetitive—multiple key players missing depth across the squad. Nashville remains solid defensively (0.77 xGA) and has not conceded freely despite NYCFC's home strength. Reduce confidence by 10 points to account for reduced attacking efficiency.