Criciuma vs Cuiaba

Criciuma host Cuiaba in the Serie B, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at Estadio Heriberto Hülse. Criciuma sit 3rd in the table and Cuiaba are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Criciuma have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L W D L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 11 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Cuiaba have taken 3 wins and 2 draws (D W W D W). Cuiaba are averaging 0.9 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 10 clean sheets so far.

Their last 7 meetings have produced 1 win for Criciuma, 4 for Cuiaba and 2 draws, averaging 2.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.72 to 1.33.

Criciuma's attacking intent (1.72 xG at home) combined with Cuiaba's vulnerabilities creates a match likely to exceed 1.5 goals. Both teams have conceded 0.76 goals on average, and the recent h2h shows regular goal-scoring. Over 1.5 at 82% confidence is well-supported by the underlying metrics.