Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh

Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al Riyadh in the Pro League, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City. Al-Ahli Jeddah sit 4th in the table and Al Riyadh are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 3 wins and 2 defeats (W W L L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Al Riyadh have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L D W L). Al Riyadh are averaging 1.2 scored and 3.2 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 6 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al Riyadh and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Draw No Bet (Home) (Home (DNB)) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 4.21 to 0.37.

Statistical model favors Home (DNB) (Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh) at 92% based on expected goals of 4.21-0.37.