Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle

Sparta Rotterdam host PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel. Sparta Rotterdam sit 12th in the table and PEC Zwolle are 13th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games PEC Zwolle have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L W L D). PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for PEC Zwolle and 3 draws, averaging 2.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.79 to 1.33.

Sparta Rotterdam's 2.79 xG at home is commanding. PEC Zwolle fielded multiple injured players, reducing their defensive capability. The 92% probability for Over 1.5 is robust.