Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco

Paris Saint Germain host Monaco in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at Parc des Princes. Paris Saint Germain sit 12th in the table and Monaco are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 2 league games Paris Saint Germain have taken 2 draws (D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Monaco have taken 2 wins (W W). Monaco are averaging 1.5 scored and 0.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 3 for Monaco and 2 draws, averaging 3.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Both Teams to Score (Yes) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 3.17 to 1.88.

Statistical model favors Yes (Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco) at 82% based on expected goals of 3.17-1.88.