Lyon vs Auxerre

Lyon host Auxerre in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Lyon sit 1st in the table and Auxerre are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Lyon have taken 1 win and 1 draw (W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Auxerre have taken 2 defeats (L L). Auxerre are averaging 1.5 scored and 4.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Lyon, 2 for Auxerre and 3 draws, averaging 3.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.37 to 2.08.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Lyon vs Auxerre) at 87% based on expected goals of 1.37-2.08.