Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian

Hibernian host Heart Of Midlothian in the Premiership, kicking off on Thursday, 3 September 2026 at Easter Road. Hibernian sit 7th in the table and Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Hibernian have taken 2 wins and 2 defeats (L W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Heart Of Midlothian have taken 3 wins and 1 defeat (L W W W). Heart Of Midlothian are averaging 2.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for Hibernian, 4 for Heart Of Midlothian and 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.22 to 1.11.

Low combined expected goals and neither team showing offensive consistency support Under 3.5 strongly. Both sides have conceded sparingly, creating a low-scoring Edinburgh derby dynamic.