Toluca vs FC Juarez

Toluca host FC Juarez in the Liga MX, kicking off on Monday, 31 August 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca sit 2nd in the table and FC Juarez are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Toluca have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L W D W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games FC Juarez have taken 5 defeats (L L L L L). FC Juarez are averaging 0.5 scored and 3.2 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for Toluca, 1 for FC Juarez and 3 draws, averaging 3.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.23 to 0.87.

Toluca heavily favoured at home with xG 2.23 vs 0.87. FC Juarez's form is dire: five straight losses, zero clean sheets, and only 0.2 goals per away game. Home win probability at 67% alone supports the selection; draw at 21% makes double chance dominant.