CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. CF Pachuca sit 15th in the table and Guadalajara Chivas are 5th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games CF Pachuca have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (L L L D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Guadalajara Chivas have taken 3 wins and 2 draws (W D W W D). Guadalajara Chivas are averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for CF Pachuca, 5 for Guadalajara Chivas and 4 draws, averaging 1.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.94 to 0.94.

Pachuca's dominant expected goals (1.94 vs 0.94) and Liga MX home ground advantage support the double chance pick, eliminating away win exposure while capturing home strength.