AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm host Hammarby FF in the Allsvenskan, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Strawberry Arena. AIK Stockholm sit 6th in the table and Hammarby FF are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games AIK Stockholm have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (D L W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Hammarby FF have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (D W W W L). Hammarby FF are averaging 2.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game, keeping 8 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for AIK Stockholm, 4 for Hammarby FF and 2 draws, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.32 to 1.86.

Both teams score regularly and this is a competitive derby-style fixture. Expected goals total and recent form support more than 1.5 goals; BTTS probability 63% reinforces multi-goal likelihood.