Valerenga vs Molde

Valerenga host Molde in the Eliteserien, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Intility Arena. Valerenga sit 11th in the table and Molde are 4th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Valerenga have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (W L L D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Molde have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W D L W W). Molde are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 0 wins for Valerenga, 7 for Molde and 2 draws, averaging 3.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.97 to 0.44.

Valerenga at home shows overwhelming xG advantage (1.97 vs 0.44) with 73% win probability. Home or Draw at 0.94 reflects the gap in quality; injuries affect both teams equally.