Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo host San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Shell Energy Stadium. Houston Dynamo sit 2nd in the table and San Jose Earthquakes are 4th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Houston Dynamo have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W W W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 10 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games San Jose Earthquakes have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L L L L D). San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 6 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Houston Dynamo, 2 for San Jose Earthquakes and 3 draws, averaging 3.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.56 to 1.59.

Despite the long injury lists for both sides, the expected goals are well-balanced and fairly high. Recent head-to-head results show goal-heavy encounters, supporting the Over 1.5 selection.