Toronto FC vs New York City FC

Toronto FC host New York City FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at BMO Field. Toronto FC sit 10th in the table and New York City FC are 7th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Toronto FC have taken 2 wins and 3 draws (D W D W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games New York City FC have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D L L D D). New York City FC are averaging 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Toronto FC, 7 for New York City FC and 2 draws, averaging 3.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.75 to 1.62.

Toronto and NYCFC have comparable attacking output, and despite injury impact on both rosters, 86% confidence for over 1.5 reflects the combined offensive potential.