Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys

Estudiantes L.P. host Newells Old Boys in the Liga Profesional Argentina, kicking off on Monday, 31 August 2026 at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi. Estudiantes L.P. sit 1st in the table and Newells Old Boys are 14th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Estudiantes L.P. have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Newells Old Boys have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D L W W D). Newells Old Boys are averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 5 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Estudiantes L.P., 3 for Newells Old Boys and 2 draws, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.08 to 0.95.

Estudiantes (xG 2.08) are clear favourites at home with strong defensive form (11 clean sheets). Newell's Old Boys concede 1.5 per game and score only 0.95, yielding an expected total near 3 goals. The 58% confidence for over 2.5 is appropriate; while Estudiantes' expected output is high, their clean sheet record suggests they may not leak enough for a high-scoring game.