Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin

Union Santa Fe host Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Estadio 15 de Abril. Union Santa Fe sit 8th in the table and Sarmiento Junin are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Union Santa Fe have taken 3 wins and 2 defeats (W L L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Sarmiento Junin have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W W W W L). Sarmiento Junin are averaging 1.1 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 7 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for Union Santa Fe, 3 for Sarmiento Junin and 1 draw, averaging 2.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.74 to 0.88.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin) at 92% based on expected goals of 0.74-0.88.