Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba

Botafogo SP host Cuiaba in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Estadio Santa Cruz. Botafogo SP sit 15th in the table and Cuiaba are 12th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Botafogo SP have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (W D L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Cuiaba have taken 3 wins and 2 draws (D W W D W). Cuiaba are averaging 0.9 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 10 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Botafogo SP, 4 for Cuiaba and 5 draws, averaging 1.9 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 81% at odds of 1.23. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.11 to 1.11.

Equal expected goals (1.11 per side) in a Serie B fixture with relatively even recent form suggests a tightly contested match unlikely to reach high scoring thresholds.