Flamengo vs Mirassol

Flamengo host Mirassol in the Serie A, kicking off on Wednesday, 2 September 2026. Flamengo sit 2nd in the table and Mirassol are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Flamengo have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W W L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 11 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Mirassol have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (L L D D L). Mirassol are averaging 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 2 wins for Flamengo, 0 for Mirassol and 1 draw, averaging 5.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.82 to 0.38.

Flamengo are strong favourites at home (94% for Home or Draw), supported by their league position (2nd), superior home goal-scoring average (0.92 vs Mirassol's away 0.42), and recent dominant form (3-0 win last time out). Mirassol's poor away record (0.42 goals scored away) and weak defensive record (1.54 conceded) make them unlikely to produce an upset despite Flamengo's injury list, which the model has already factored in.