Bahia vs Internacional

Bahia host Internacional in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia sit 5th in the table and Internacional are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Bahia have taken 2 wins and 3 draws (D D D W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Internacional have taken 4 draws and 1 defeat (D D D D L). Internacional are averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, keeping 6 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Bahia, 3 for Internacional and 3 draws, averaging 2.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.59 to 0.37.

Bahia are overwhelming home favorites with 2.59 expected goals versus Internacional's 0.37 away. The 97% probability reflects a heavily one-sided matchup where Bahia's home record and superior league position make alternative outcomes unlikely.