Corinthians vs Santos

Corinthians host Santos in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Neo Química Arena. Corinthians sit 10th in the table and Santos are 14th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Corinthians have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (D W L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 10 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Santos have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D L W D W). Santos are averaging 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 6 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Corinthians, 3 for Santos and 3 draws, averaging 2.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.69 to 1.48.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Corinthians vs Santos) at 84% based on expected goals of 1.69-1.48.