Flamengo vs Botafogo

Flamengo host Botafogo in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã. Flamengo sit 2nd in the table and Botafogo are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Flamengo have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W W L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 11 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Botafogo have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (W D L L L). Botafogo are averaging 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 7 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Botafogo and 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.70 to 0.62.

Flamengo are clear favorites with strong underlying metrics: 1.7 expected goals at home versus Botafogo's 0.62 away. The 88% double chance reflects their dominance as league position 2 against position 11.